PICKERING, ONTARIO, CANADA - JANUARY 23 : An aerial view of people ice fishing at Frenchmans Bay on Lake Ontario in Pickering, Ontario, Canada on January 23, 2024. (Photo by Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images)
(FOX 2) - With winter nearly upon us in Michigan, scientists are predicting a slightly-below average year of ice coverage on most of the Great Lakes.
Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Erie will all see less ice cover than normal during the 2024-25 winter, while Lake Ontario will be at normal levels.
It would be an improvement after last year's paltry showing when a near record low for ice coverage was reported.
The Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab (GLERL) starts tracking ice coverage in early December with parts of Lake Superior starting to freeze over first. As of Dec. 20, about 1.2% of the lake had ice - mostly isolated to the top of the water body.
No other lake had more than 1% as of Friday. Most of the expected ice will form in January and February.
An ice climatologist with GLERL said they were expecting a mild season of ice cover, who added the amount of coverage is influenced by global seasonal patterns that steer daily weather trends.
"This year, both AMO and PDO are bringing very strong warm weather conditions to the Great Lakes region," says Dr. Jia Wang. "This will overwhelm the cooling caused by this year’s neutral ENSO conditions, so a mild winter is likely."
The AMO and PDO refer to climate systems over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, while ENSO talks about El Niño.
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Great Lakes ice coverage to be lowest on record
Typically, more than half of the Great Lakes freeze each winter. That's not going to happen this year as researchers predict a record-breaking low in terms of ice on the lakes.
Lake Superior
Depending on where someone is, ice coverage will vary across Lake Superior. In the northern reaches by Thunder Bay and Nipigon in Canada, parts of the shore will see some ice in December with it thickening by the end of January. It will be thickest by mid-February.
Along the Michigan shoreline, there will be ice less than an inch thick until Februrary, except for in sheltered bays which will freeze over sooner.
Lake Michigan
Ice will remain less than an inch thick February on the Michigan side of the lake, except for Beaver Island where researchers expect coverage along the northern shore and near the Straits of Mackinac.
Areas of open water won't get much coverage, if any, before the cold season ends.
Lake Huron
December will be mostly free of ice in Lake Huron. The northern shore will see ice form in early January before building up near the Straits of Mackinac.
Traveling down to Saginaw Bay, ice will be thin along the shore through the end of January before building up by mid-February.
Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair
While below-average temperatures expected over the lower Great Lakes in December, things will warm up in January and February.
Any noticeable ice on the western side of Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair won't form until late January. It will be thickest in Sandusky Bay. The shores will freeze first in early February.
There's likely not going to be any ice form in the open water sections of the lakes.
Lake Ontario
Ice will form along the shores in late December before thickening in January, however it isn't expected to get morethan 8 tenths of an inch thick, which should happen by early February.
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