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Here’s the projected case numbers for Michigan if stay-home policy isn’t followed

Published  March 23, 2020 6:03pm EDT
Coronavirus
FOX 2 Detroit

(FOX 2) - While announcing her stay-home order Monday morning, Gov. Whitmer laid out a blueprint for how the coronavirus emergency in Michigan will heighten if we do not take the serious action of beginning to all stay at home Tuesday.   

The virus death count in Italy has soared to over 3,400, surpassing the death toll in China, and without the stay-home action, Whitmer warns Michigan could be just like Italy.

‘The current trajectory we’re on looks a lot like Italy’: Gov. Whitmer says

Gov. Whitmer explains the numbers if Michigan continues on our current trajectory of new coronavirus cases.

“The current trajectory we’re on looks a lot like Italy and if you’ve seen any of the coverage about what’s happening in Italy, what it means for their economy - but most importantly what it means for the lives of the Italian people – you know we’ve got to do everything in our power to keep that from happening here in Michigan,” Whitmer said.

As of Monday afternoon, 15 people have died in Michigan with a caseload of over 1,300 - and that number will rise.

RELATED: Track Michigan coronavirus cases by county with this interactive map

In fact, if the state did nothing the governor predicts the caseload would jump to over 6,000.

“If we do nothing, very rough models estimate that the number of cases in Michigan could increase five-fold in the next week,” said Michigan’s Chief Medical Executive Dr. Joneigh Khaldun.

The governor continued to stress that the state does not have enough personal protective gear for frontline healthcare workers and, at some point, that the 1,000 ventilators now online would not be enough to meet the increasing demand.

Earlier models suggested that 40-60% of the population would catch the virus but the governor warns the new number is much higher.

“If we stay on our current trajectory, just like Italy, over 70% of our people could get infected with Covid-19. Of that 7 million projected, about one million of those would be hospitalized,” Whitmer said.

RELATED: What you can do and can't do under Michigan's stay-at-home order

The stay-at-home clock starts at midnight Monday night, and over the next three weeks the governor and her advisors will monitor the number of cases, hoping against hope that the stay-home policy will drive the numbers down.