Michigan 2024 election: Previewing Trump and Harris, Slotkin and Rogers, toss-up races for Congress

(FOX 2) - A lot has happened in the four years since Michigan voters went to the polls to elect a president. As the Covid pandemic faded from public view, economic uncertainty over inflation and reproductive rights took over the mantle. 

In Michigan, electric vehicles and labor unrest fueled a massive autoworker strike as concerns over political violence escalated. Many of these themes will play a role in the talking points of this year's biggest races.

When they cast their vote this November, people will find some similar names on their ballot - as well as some new ones. But what hasn't changed in the political landscape this 2024 election is the significance that battleground states like Michigan will play - both for president and for Congress.

Michigan's 15 electoral votes are up for grabs in a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, an open seat in the U.S. Senate could sway the balance of power in the chamber, while a rematch in a hotly-contested district in metro Detroit could influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Needless to say, even without a ballot proposal driving interest in this election, turnout is still expected to be high this cycle. 

In previous years, topics like legalizing marijuana, expanding abortion, and broadening access to voting have underscored the significance of the cycle as well as driven turnout to the polls.

This year, no specific issue is on the ballot. Instead, those issues are part of the larger races for president and Congress. Electric vehicles, inflation, and Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza and now Hezbollah in Lebanon are top of mind for Michigan voters. 

How Trump and Harris pitch their visions around these issues could define if Michigan continues its support for Democrats - or swings back to Republicans. 

In what has been one of the busiest political seasons in recent memory, uncertainty over the next election outcome looms large. The past two presidential elections in Michigan have been tight and polling this year indicates the victor may win by the slimmest margins.

To help better understand the issues at play, FOX 2 is breaking down what each candidate is most focused on this election:

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R)

The vote each party is spending the most money on is the one for president. Hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on TV and digital advertising, while mailboxes are filling up with brochures, and campaign signs are littering yards.

A lot is on the line in the presidential race, in part due to the drastically different directions both Harris and Trump are promising, should they win the presidency. Glancing at the rallies each candidate has held in Michigan, as well as the remarks they deliver to their supporters reveal starkly divergent visions.  

During her town hall in Farmington Hills, hosted by Oprah Winfrey, Harris told the audience "There is so much at stake in this election, and ultimately the question before us is what kind of country do we want to live in?"

The issues

Harris has framed her economic proposals around ending price gouging to lower grocery prices, cutting taxes for the middle class and parents to lower childcare costs while promoting the creation of more housing to reduce the cost of renting and buying a home.

Meanwhile, Trump has proposed an unprecedented series of tariffs on imported goods as a means of boosting manufacturing jobs. To make housing more available, he says deporting illegal immigrants will expand access and make prices cheaper.

Electric vehicles represent one of the most important issues in Michigan, marrying themes of energy, manufacturing, and climate change which are all relevant to the state. The Harris-Biden administration has pushed massive investment into the sector to help float companies like General Motors and Ford transition to battery-powered vehicles. 

Not everyone in the state has joined the White House's support, with only 41% of the state approving of the effort as a means to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, according to the most recent survey of Michigan. 

There is also some trepidation from autoworkers about what a transition could mean for their future jobs, Bridge Magazine reports.

Trump has jumped on these anxieties, telling supporters at a town hall in Flint the auto industry in Michigan would be gone under a Harris presidency. However, even the Republican candidate has voiced support for electric vehicles, at times praising them and softening his criticism of the industry. Trump has said his recent support from Tesla-owner Elon Musk is part of why he has changed his mind.

Reproductive health has also dominated headlines in Michigan and the presidential race, ever since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down protections for abortion. While Michigan legalized access via ballot measure in 2022, the issue continues to resonate with voters around the country. 

Harris has been unambiguous in her position on the issue, promising to sign a national law guaranteeing access. Meanwhile, Trump has presented multiple positions on abortion, at one point proposing free in vitro fertilization and hesitation around Florida's 6-week abortion ban, then flipping and supporting keeping the rule.

U.S. Senate: Rogers (R) Vs. Slotkin (D)

The last time a Republican won the race for one of Michigan's two U.S. Senate seats was in 1994, when Spencer Abraham beat Democrat Bob Carr by nearly 10 points. Abraham would go on to lose his reelection bid in 2000 to Debbie Stabbenow, the current holder of the seat that is now in contention in the 2024 election.

This year may be the Republican Party's best chance to reclaim the seat in 24 years. Already a presidential election that could drive high levels of turnout, it features two political heavyweights with similar backgrounds dealing with intelligence, who have both won races for Congress and have experience campaigning in high-stakes political competitions.

Mike Rogers was elected to Congress in 2000, serving as Michigan's 8th District representative until 2014. Elissa Slotkin currently represents Michigan's 7th District, winning her first two races by tight margins before announcing her plan to run for Stabbenow's seat.

The Issues

Before running for office, both Slotkin and Rogers spent time in the federal government, with the Democrat working for the CIA, spending three tours in Iraq and the Republican working as a special agent in the FBI in Chicago. Rogers eventually served as the Chair of the House intelligence committee. 

Both have played up their security expertise in the Middle East and at home - showcasing that experience in commercials online and on TV.

Among the biggest issues both candidates have focused on is America's relationship with China. Rogers has argued the country has stolen intellectual property from the U.S., tying President Joe Biden to theft in attack ads by claiming he has failed to protect American business.

And in Michigan, concerns over Chinese influence at a new electric battery plant on the west side of the state has become a political football with Republicans claiming Slotkin has not been transparent in helping secure the deal, which included hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies.

Slotkin's campaign has also worked to tie Rogers to China, with one advertisement criticizing his past work in an advisory role for telecom companies as helping facilitate more access for foreign business in the U.S.

While abortion is not on the ballot in Michigan this year, that hasn't stopped advertisements critical of Rogers over his past support of restricting abortion. 

And in another advertisement from her team, Slotkin played up her work trying to regulate drug companies and efforts to reduce pricing on critical medicines like insulin, showcasing Medicare's new ability to negotiate drug prices.

Immigration is another issue playing a role in both the presidential race and the campaign for senate. Rogers says he would support resuming the building of a wall on the border with Mexico as well as reinstating the controversial "Remain in Mexico" policy deployed by the Trump administration. Earlier this year, Slotkin said she urged Biden to take executive action to strengthen the border, while criticizing Republicans for killing a bipartisan bill that would have reformed immigration.

U.S. House: Races rated Toss-up

Barrett (R) vs. Hertel (D) - 7th District

The race to fill Slotkin's old seat features her former Republican challenger Tom Barrett and Curtis Hertel, who is running in his first race for Congress. Both candidates served in the Michigan state Senate at the same time and have spent nearly a decade as a lawmaker. 

A seat that previously attracted some of the highest spending in campaign history, the 2024 race is expected to be another expensive one with most pollsters rating it as a toss-up. With control of the U.S. House up for grabs, it will likely draw millions from outside groups. 

Barrett told The Washington Examiner earlier in 2024 that he believed he had better odds at winning the seat with reproductive health no longer an issue on the ballot. He said he expects Democrats and Hertel to use his stance on abortion again, but predicted it wouldn't prove as successful. He has added security at the border, in the economy, and beyond would be his focus. 

Hertel has campaigned on improving the economy and lowering the cost of living for residents in Michigan, as well as addressing gun safety and focusing on boosting electric vehicle jobs in the state.

McDonald Rivet (D) vs. Junge (R) - 8th District

Another open House seat in Michigan comes from the 8th District, where incumbent Democrat Dan Kildee announced plans to step down from the mid-Michigan seat. The borders of the district stretch from Midland and Bay City to the north to Flint to the south. 

Kristen McDonald Rivet spent a short time in the Michigan Senate before running for office, beating out two other candidates to win the Democratic Primary. She previously worked as the Bay City Commissioner for four years, as well as working in state government as the chief of staff for the Department of Education. 

Paul Junge worked in media and in the Trump administration before running for Congress against both Slotkin in the 8th District in 2020 and against Kildee in the newly-drawn 8th District in 2022. He lost both races.

Both have framed their reasons for running around the economy in a bid to help families. Also rated as a toss-up by pollsters, the region has historically been a Democratic one that has begun leaning more to the right. 

U.S. House: Races leaning one way

James (R) vs. Marlinga (D) - 10th District

In what could be the closest race for a House seat in Michigan, the campaign for the 10th District features a rematch from two years ago with incumbent Republican John James facing off against challenger Carl Marlinga.

James ran for U.S. Senate twice before running for Congress. He beat out Marlinga by half a point in what became the third-closest race for a House seat in 2022. After serving in the U.S. Army, James worked in supply chain management for a firm based in Detroit. 

The Republican spoke at the Republican National Convention in the summer, painting a picture that "the world is on fire" after Biden was elected president, with open borders leading to surges in illegal immigration and sky-high inflation pushing Americans further into debt.

Marlinga served as the Macomb County Prosecutor for five terms, as well as a judge in the circuit court before running for office. He has told the media his desire to run has roots in protecting democracy. He specifically identified the riot on Jan. 6 as a reason for wanting to serve in the U.S. House in 2025. 

The race has been rated as "Lean Republican," although it has also been targeted by Democratic groups as a seat that could be flipped. 

U.S. House: Races rated Solid or Safe

Dingell (D) - Smiley (R) - 6th District

Debbie Dingell is running for her sixth term as a member of Congress after succeeding her late husband John Dingell. A long-term public official with connections to the auto industry, Dingell is now running for a district that does not include Dearborn, where she used to live. The new district encompasses Washtenaw County, including Democratic-stronghold Ann Arbor.

Heather Smiley is running in her first race for federal office. A resident of Riverview who previously ran for city council, Smiley once worked at Ford in the field of data analytics and strategy.

McClain (R) vs. Mosley (D) - 9th District

Lisa McClain has served the thumb region for two terms and is eyeing another two years in Congress. SHe has worked as the chair of the House Health Care and Financial Services Oversight Subcommittee, as well as a member of the Armed Service Committee. She previously worked in financial planning.

Clinton St. Mosley of Lake Orion previously spent time working in sales before becoming an insurance agent for State Farm.  

Stevens (D) vs. Somberg (R) - 11th District

Haley Stevens has spent three terms in Congress and beat back a Ferndale Democrat to win the August Primary in the newly-drawn 11th Congressional District. Prior to her time in Congress, Stevens worked in workforce development and as the chief of staff at the Auto Task Force during the industry bailout.

Nicholas Somberg is from Rochester, spending time as a criminal defense attorney who represented a member of the Wolverine Watchmen, the militia group that was charged in the kidnapping plot of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. 

Tlaib (D) vs. Hooper (R) - 12th District

Rashida Tlaib's name has become a nationally-recognizable one and she has continued to be one of the progressive firebrands in Congress. As the only Palestinian member serving in the House, she has worked on committees dealing with financial services, housing, and oversight. She was born and raised in Detroit and is a vocal critic of Israel.

James Hooper is from Livonia with a background in humanitarian work as well as work with religious organizations like the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association. This is his second time running for Congress.

Thanedar (D) vs. Bivings (R) - 13th District

Shri Thanedar survived a late challenge in the Democratic Primary from Mary Waters after a signature scandal derailed his likely opponent in Adam Hollier. This is Thanedar's second run for Congress after winning in a crowded primary in 2022. 

Martell Bivings previously worked for the Detroit Economic Growth Corporation as well as candidate for the 13th Congressional District. A graduate from Cody High School before attending Howard University, he studied political science and legal communications.