Michigan summer air quality preview: Will wildfires disrupt our breathing again?

(FOX 2) - Wildfires are already burning in Canada, while metro Detroit had this year's first air quality alert issued over the weekend. After last year's summer of historically unhealthy air, locals may be wondering if the state is in for a new normal.

After all, no one was able to escape the dirty air that descended on Southeast Michigan in 2023, creating hazardous conditions for everyone - not just groups with lung and heart problems. 

Despite Canada's 2024 forecast for another round of "active and intense" wildfires this summer, Michigan's air won't get quite so polluted.

"We don't think it will be as bad," said Jim Haywood, a senior meteorologist with the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy. "Canada was horribly on fire last year. Normally, those fires are contained to the western part of the country - the Rockies and the Pacific. What we saw last year were a lot of fires in the eastern part and central part of Canada."

As those fires burned, last year's wind patterns would carry the smoke straight down into Michigan. Most years, the smoke that reaches Michigan is high enough in the atmosphere as to not be disruptive. 

But the proximity to 2023's wildfires "just hit us like a freight train," said Haywood. 

The meteorologist added one major cause of last year's wildfires was a serial arsonist who started more than a dozen blazes. Identified as Brian Paré, the fires burned hundreds of hectares of land and forced hundreds to evacuate their homes. 

Much of the smoke from those fires last year is what clogged Michigan's atmosphere. 

As long as wildfire season proceeds as expected in Canada, it won't disrupt the state's air quality. 

As of late May, the vast majority of fires recorded in Canada were in northern British Columbia and Alberta provinces, the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System shows. 

Drought conditions also played a larger role in last year's burst of wildfires. This year has been predictably wet, providing a more normal start to the summer. Haywood said this summer may be a touch warmer than normal, but "everything is pretty much tracking as an average summer."

This year is also an El Niño year. The global weather phenomenon that pushes the jet stream further north and leads to warmer winters in North America made for a mild winter. That meant more rain and less snow. 

But even with the added variable, it shouldn't impact Michigan's air quality. 

Ozone and Particulate Matter

The two pollutants meteorologists watch for the most when declaring an air quality advisory are ozone and particulate matter. 

Ozone, which helps protect the Earth from harmful UV rays, is safe when it's in our atmosphere. However, it can be hazardous to breathe when in our local air. Ground-level ozone comes from pollution emitted by gas combustion vehicles and power plants. 

Particulate matter is measured in two ways: PM2.5 and PM10. The fine particles normally come from industrial facilities as well as wildfires. 

Where particulate matter pollution can travel far distances, most ozone pollution is local.

"Detroit is the source of most of its ozone pollution," said Haywood.

The first air quality advisory of the year was issued on May 18 for elevated levels of ozone. 

Air Quality Map

Air quality is measured using an index that ranges from Orange to purple and Maroon. Find a breakdown of the Air Quality Index here. 

An interactive map of air quality has been embedded below that shows what kinds of pollutants are in the air and how poor the atmosphere is. 

There's also an app called JustAir Solutions that will text mobile phone users updates about poor air quality in their area.