Northern lights Michigan forecast: Will the Aurora Borealis be visible this week?

Derek Kevra explains how the Northern Lights form

Last week's Aurora Borealis was visible over northern Michigan. Derek Kevra explains how the sun helps with the Northern Lights.

(FOX 2) - The northern lights are expected to be dazzling in the Michigan sky this week after a geomagnetic storm on the sun's surface sent a solar wind toward Earth's atmosphere.

According to the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the sun released several coronal mass ejections over the past few days. The prediction center is expecting the materials from those events to collide with Earth between Feb. 13 - Feb. 15 with the most active evening being on Wednesday.

The intensity of the event was rated at G2 on NOAA's space weather scale, which is described as a moderate storm that includes some potential voltage alarms for high-latitude power systems.

There's only one problem with anticipated northern lights viewing, which is expected to stretch over Michigan and into the Midwest: clouds. The National Weather Service is predicting a lot of cloud coverage over Southeast Michigan this week.

But for those willing to travel to the right spot, they might just get lucky spotting the iconic greens and blues that come with a geomagnetic storm.

What are the Northern Lights?

The northern lights, sometimes called the Aurora Borealis, appear as ribbons of green, blue, and purple in the skies furthest north on Earth.

The phenomenon happens when energized particles from the sun are released in events called Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These ejections are made up of plasma created from the sun, and when the timing is right, get shot toward the Earth.

The particles are deflected by Earth's magnetic field, which redirects them toward the planet's poles. The Aurora Borealis is the interaction of those particles within the planet's northern pole. When they arrive, the collision emits the colors we see.

When can I see the Northern Lights?

Timing is the most important factor when it comes to seeing the northern lights. The release of particles from the sun is one variable to consider; cloud cover is the other. And of course, it has to be dark enough out to actually see the lights.

Geomagnetic activity from the sun was reported over the past few evenings, NOAA's prediction center shows.

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According to its three-day forecast, the evening of Feb. 13 and the morning of Feb. 14 may offer the best chances to see the northern lights. The intensity is expected to reach it's peak Tuesday night at 9 p.m.

How intense will the northern lights be?

The intensity of a solar storm is graded using the Kp index, which ranges from 0-9. A range of 0 to 2 means the aurora will be far north and dim in intensity.

The higher the number, the more active the storm. The upcoming display was predicted to be 5.67 Kp at it's most intense.

Based on the Kp index, NOAA grades its solar storms on a 5-point scale, with a minor storm being designated G 1. It climbs from there:

G 2 - Moderate. Includes: High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
G 3 - Strong. Includes: Voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
G 4 - Severe. Includes: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
G 5 - Extreme. Includes: Widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

What about weather?

Even if the sun sends out multiple waves of plasma, seeing the northern lights will be a fruitless effort if the weather doesn't cooperate.

The forecast this week is calling for precipitation and partly cloudy conditions over the next few days. Here's the breakdown:

Tuesday night: No precipitation and between 20-40% cloud coverage
Wednesday night: No precipitation and 70-80% cloud coverage
Thursday night: No precipitation and 60% cloud coverage

Light pollution

Just like star gazing, the best opportunities for staring up at the night sky are away from cities.

For the best chances to see the northern lights, viewers will need to get away from Southeast Michigan and into the outskirts of Oakland and Livingston County if they want a chance.