Swing states results: When the Presidential race could be called

Tuesday night, polls close nationwide as Americans cast their ballots for the next President, certain Senate seats, and the House of Representatives.

While all 50 states and territories will vote, the brightest spotlight will be on seven key swing states, where unique vote-counting rules mean some results might roll in fast—while others may take longer. 

RELATED: Roughly 82 million voted early in the 2024 election – here are some takeaways

From early voting to extended mail-in deadlines, each state has its own approach that could shape the timeline for Tuesday night. Here’s a quick look at when we’re likely to know who won in battlegrounds like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

What times do polls close in the swing states?

Before we can talk about when results will come in, we need to know when polls will close.

• Arizona: 9 p.m. ET
• Georgia: 7 p.m. ET
• Michigan: 8 p.m. ET
• Pennsylvania: 8 p.m. ET
• Nevada: 10 p.m. ET
• North Carolina: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Wisconsin: 9 p.m. ET

Michigan: First presidential election with early voting

Michigan's 2024 election will be the first time the state offers early voting during a presidential election, which officials hope will ease lines on Election Day. 

Here are some key factors for the state to consider:

• Voting options: Absentee ballots were mailed out starting Sept. 26, with in-person early voting beginning Oct. 7.
• Counting timeline: Clerks are allowed to begin processing absentee ballots eight days before Election Day, which could reduce delays. Many counties expect to have 90% of absentee ballots processed before polls open.
• Potential delays: Some clerks are concerned about USPS delays, which could impact ballots mailed close to Election Day. Voters are encouraged to submit absentee ballots at least two weeks early.

With a high turnout expected, Michigan election officials aim to avoid the delays seen in 2020 by utilizing early voting and efficient absentee processing.

North Carolina: 90% of votes expected by midnight

North Carolina aims to report nearly all (90%) of its votes by midnight on Election Day, Nov. 5. Details include:

• Absentee ballots: The state processes absentee ballots weekly beginning Oct. 1, allowing them to be counted immediately once polls close.
• Early voting: In-person early voting is available from Oct. 17 through Nov. 2, and totals are processed before Election Day.
• Weather challenges: Western North Carolina faces potential complications from Hurricane Helene’s aftermath, which affected polling site accessibility. New rules provide more options for impacted voters.

Given the streamlined processes, North Carolina is likely to have results earlier than many other swing states.

Pennsylvania: Delayed results due to mail-in rules

In Pennsylvania, mail-in ballots cannot be processed until 7 a.m. on Election Day, leading to expected delays in results. Key details include:

• Mail-in voting: Over 1 million people used mail-in ballots in the last governor’s election. This year, a new bill allowing pre-Election Day processing remains stalled in the state legislature.
• Counting timeline: Without early processing, mail-in ballots may take days to count, especially in a close race. Democrats tend to favor mail-in voting, so early results may lean Republican until mail ballots are processed.
• Legal and legislative factors: Former Gov. Tom Wolf’s Act 77 expanded mail-in voting, and ongoing political tensions impact any attempts to change Pennsylvania’s counting procedures.

Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State has indicated that voters shouldn’t expect a clear winner on election night, especially given the anticipated high mail-in turnout.

Nevada: Extended counting due to mail-in ballots

Nevada allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted up to four days after, which may delay final results:

• Mail-in voting: With more than half the state voting by mail, ballots postmarked by Election Day are accepted for counting until four days afterward.
• Upgrades: A new statewide registration system is designed to speed up counting, with Clark County adding tabulation equipment to manage high turnout.
• Counting timeline: Results may be available gradually, but a definitive outcome could take days, particularly in close races.

In 2020, Nevada’s results were confirmed four days after Election Day, and 2024 may follow a similar timeline.

Arizona: High early ballot drop-offs on Election Day

Arizona’s high volume of early ballots dropped off on Election Day itself has historically delayed final results:

• Ballot verification: Early ballots dropped off on Election Day undergo verification, including signature checks, before being counted. Maricopa County, in particular, saw a record 100,000 ballots dropped off on Election Day in 2020.
• Counting timeline: As of Nov. 10 in the 2020 election, 619,000 ballots were still uncounted. This trend could repeat in 2024 due to tight races and record turnout.
• Comparison with Florida: Unlike Arizona, Florida only allows Election Day drop-offs at county election offices, which may explain its faster reporting.

Officials in Arizona expect a close race, with results likely unfolding over days as late ballots are verified and counted.

Wisconsin: Absentee ballots and tight races delay results

Wisconsin expects delays due to absentee ballot procedures and close races:

• Counting procedure: Wisconsin counts absentee ballots centrally in certain counties, which cannot begin until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Milwaukee’s results, for example, typically come in late at night or early the following morning.
• Political polarization: Close races require nearly all ballots to be counted before results are called, contributing to longer wait times for unofficial results.
• Historical timeline: In 2020, the AP called Wisconsin the day after the election. Based on past years, unofficial results for the 2024 election may not be available until early on Nov. 6.

Election officials emphasize accuracy over speed, with late-night absentee counts expected to affect early results.

Georgia: Legal challenges and record turnout

Georgia faces record turnout amid a high number of legal challenges that could impact vote processing:

• Litigation: Recent lawsuits challenge voter registration deadlines, candidate qualifications, and last-minute State Election Board rules. The Georgia Supreme Court recently delayed ruling on last-minute changes until after the election.
• Voter registration: Hurricane Helene led to lawsuits seeking to extend voter registration deadlines, though these were ultimately denied.
• Third-party candidates: Some ballots may include disqualified third-party candidates due to a Supreme Court ruling issued after absentee ballots were distributed.

With numerous lawsuits and high turnout, Georgia’s election results may be delayed, particularly in close races.