Winter in Southeast Michigan; how much snow to expect this season

(FOX 2) - It feels like so long ago that we were dealing with winter of 2013-14 where we picked up 95 inches of snow! In fact, some would argue the last few years have been... easy.  

Outside a couple of large snow events, the last two winters have had what would be considered "normal snow falls" with last year getting 47 inches and 2021 getting 45 inches. Normal is near 45 inches.  

All in all, it has been manageable.

An interesting and notable detail however is that winter seems to be getting started later and lasting longer into March and April before releasing its grip. February proved to be the most difficult month both years, where nearly half of that snowfall in that month alone.

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In 2021 we had 20.4 inches and in 2020 it was 21.8 inches. And there’s a reason why:

The similarity is because both of these years the global weather driver was what we call La Niña, where cold water in the Eastern Pacific Ocean affects the weather all over the Earth.  

For us, it usually means wetter weather and variable temperatures. The tricky part is the timing of the excess moisture and the temperatures. A few degrees could be the difference in a rainy, sleety mess or 6 inches of snow.  

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Last year’s winter storm on February 2-3 was a perfect example of this: we were forecasting between 10-14 inches of snow but four hours of a rain/snow mix early in the storm dropped totals to 8-10 inches because, instead of simply snow, it started as rain.  

So what about this year? The last two winters were La Niña Winters and this year too, is expected to also be a La Niña Winter.

Which means we will be pretty similar to those years!  

The Pacific Northwest is bracing for more rain and mountain snow while the Southwest will be hot and dry. The Great Plains will have plenty of winter weather to deal with, ranging from sleet to freezing rain to snow.  

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Specifically for us in Michigan, indications are that November will start mild and that February will be the worst winter month, again. Overall snow totals will likely be between 45-50 inches which, statistically speaking, is pretty normal.

And speaking of "normal", one more interesting note about that.

The last 10 years have been way snowier than we had been back in the 1980s and because of that our statistics are changing. Our "normal winter" snowfall averages have increased across southern Michigan.

For us, we now plan on three additional inches of snow and in Saginaw it's closer to seven inches. A sign that our changing climate has made for a snowier last decade.

We will be tracking each and every storm here at The Weather Authority. We’ll have you covered all Winter long.