Michigan fall colors: Why the leaves are changing now, when to expect peak & how vibrant this season will be
A file photo of leaves as they begin changing in Michigan (Amber Ainsworth/FOX 2)
(FOX 2) - As the summer heat hangs on, some leaves are already showing their fall colors, while other trees have started shedding leaves - a weird sight to see when the temperatures are above 90.
This summer has had stretches of high heat, coupled with heavy rain events - both factors that impact when the leaves change and how bright their autumn hue will be.
We chatted with Davey Tree business developer and ISA-certified arborist Josh Leo to understand why the trees are changing now, and what can be expected this fall.
Why some trees are changing now
The biggest factors that impact when the leaves change and their vibrancy include temperature, rainfall, and cool nights, Leo said. He described what some trees are doing now as an early fall brought on by heat or drought stress.
"The plants are tired," he said. "We're starting to get to the end of the season, and we've had some hot days, but we've also had a lot of moisture."
Some leaves showing fall color in northern Oakland County on Aug. 24, 2024 (Photo: Amber Ainsworth/FOX 2)
If it weren't for the rain the area received in June and July, Leo said even more trees would probably be changing now.
"I think we'd be a lot worse off. I think you'd already see more fall coloring now from heat stress, than you're already seeing," Leo said.
When will the leaves peak this year?
Though some colors are showing now, we still have a ways to go before peak fall colors.
"It's probably going to be somewhere around that third, the fourth week of October," Leo said of when Metro Detroit will see peak colors.
This is all temperature-dependent, though. Warmer temperatures will push the peak back, while cooler temperatures or a stretch of dry weather could speed up the process.
"That can all change in an instant if all of a sudden we get a cold snap that rolls through here, or we go 14, 15, 20 days with no rain," Leo said.
Cold that would do that doesn't appear to be in the cards, at least not based on current weather predictions.
Photo courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center
According to the Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this fall is expected to be significantly warmer than average. Michigan's temperatures in September, October and November are expected to be moderately above average.
As for how wet it will be, Michigan's rainfall is forecasted to be near normal - neither wetter nor drier than average.
How vibrant will this year's colors be?
The leaves will change color - that's a given, but the next big question is how bright their colors will be.
"The succession of warm and sunny days, followed by cool nights, those are going to help bring out those colors. It's going to allow that chlorophyl to break down at a slower rate, which is going to make those colors be more vibrant," Leo said.
The result? Possibly a more vibrant fall season fueled by warmer temperatures and rain that has fallen all summer.
"In my opinion, I think we're going to be just a tick above average," Leo said. "I want to say that I think we're going to have a pretty good vibrant coloring this season."
Leo noted that other factors like soil conditions and type can also impact the leaf vibrancy, as some soil, such as more sandy soil, lets go of moisture.
He added that watering your large trees can help ensure more vibrant colors, especially if the weather ends up being drier.
Where to see the leaves in Michigan
There's really not a bad spot in the state to catch the fall colors, but Leo recommends visiting a state park if you're looking to see bright hues.
"It's hard to beat a state park. There's so much vegetation in those areas. And you get such a different array of plant material, from our maples, to our oaks. Sugar maples are probably by far my favorite. But then you get the cottonwoods that turn that really nice yellow color," Leo said. "It's a Bob Ross painting in real life."
An undated photo of fall leaves at Maybury State Park (Photo: Amber Ainsworth/FOX 2)
If you do want to travel to see the colors, you can't go wrong with heading up north.
"I love going to northern Michigan. I like getting into a lake setting. To me, I just like seeing that uniform picture of the fall colors on the lake and then the trees standing in the background," he said. "To me that's a gorgeous photo."
Remember, if traveling out of the Metro Detroit area, peak color will be earlier. The Upper Peninsula typically peaks in late September to early October, followed by the upper Lower Peninsula and so-forth.